Coffee Monitor: Ethiopia
Independent evidence on Ethiopia's coffee economy · Seattle, Washington
Global Coffee Observatory · Data and releases
The Observatory publishes its panel, controlling methodology, versioned data and verification manifests separately from the interface. A reader should be able to check what a map state rests on without trusting the map itself.
Files listed as not yet published are named here so that their absence is visible. Nothing on this page links to a document that does not exist.
Evidence Rule Book, Revision 2.7. Controlling since 1 September 2026.
Revision 2.7 is the only methodology that governs the live map. Draft Revision 3.x material is non-controlling and is isolated from live states. The rules are summarised on the Method page.
SHA-256: ef38c5e91eaf5769e12e274da6a4537988601aa39f2b85e1b14234a580b1ea9b
Document not yet published here. The hash above identifies the controlling text and can be checked against any copy supplied on request.
The Observatory uses a fixed, versioned panel of 51 coffee origins. It is not an exhaustive enumeration of every territory reporting coffee production. Any change to panel membership is a versioned change and is published with a crosswalk.
Panel CSV and the 2024 producing-territory exclusion list: not yet published.
306 cells in the six-row matrix, none unreviewed. 259 reviewed with no determination, each carrying a named blocker and a reopen trigger. 44 held. 1 published rating. 1 rating disputed. 1 requiring re-adjudication.
One rating across 306 cells. That is the finding, not a reporting gap: a determination is reached far more often than it is publishable, and the gap between the two is the archive and verification work.
Producer-price slice. 102 cells. 63 reviewed with no determination, 37 held, 1 published, 1 disputed. Current determinations: 38.
An earlier pairing of 40 cells across 33 origins circulated internally and was withdrawn on reconciliation, because the two figures came from different moments and never described the same snapshot. The lower figure is not a retreat; it is what the dated cell-level record supports.
These figures are generated from the adjudication registry rather than maintained by hand. Where a figure on this page and a figure on the Observatory disagree, the registry governs and the disagreement is a defect to be fixed, not a judgement to be made between two accounts.
Research-cycle completion does not mean every cell is publicly rated. Publication eligibility is tracked separately from analytic closure, and all 47 current determinations are held from public rating by a named publication, archive, evidence-chain, source-stability or independent-verification gate.
Research-final means the evidence search and adjudication cycle is frozen. That point was reached on 4 September 2026. No further country sweep is planned for this vintage, and a cell is not researched harder because its answer is unsatisfying.
Release-final is a later and separate point, reached when three things are done: the publication gates on the determined price cells are cleared or explicitly carried forward, the frozen 102-cell producer-price dataset is published with its manifest and checksums, and the prespecified independent adjudication has been run and its reliability result recorded.
Only at that second point does an edition exist. It is then named by its audit vintage, and a published edition never changes silently. Evidence arriving afterwards produces a later version with its own record, not a quiet amendment to an earlier one.
A cell recorded as reviewed with no determination stays that way for the vintage. It reopens on one of four things and nothing else:
A cell is never converted to state one because the search stopped. State one is a positive finding and still requires the full structured negative-search record. The absence of a determination and a determination of absence are different results, and the map is not permitted to round one into the other.
Public Economic Visibility at the Producer Side of Global Coffee. The first comparative paper covers public reference price and farm-gate price across the fixed 51-origin panel.
The pre-analysis plan is intended to be registered before the 102-cell dataset is frozen and before the final comparative statistics are computed. Interim cell-level adjudications were already known during instrument development, so it is not presented as a blind preregistration.
Registration record and frozen dataset: not yet published.
The third rule is the one that costs something. Every analytically closed producer-price cell is currently held. Reporting those as failures would produce a dramatic number and a false one.
Coffee Monitor reports three separate questions for each producer-price row, not one score:
The denominator is fixed at 51 origins for all three counts. The thresholds are nested: everything reconstructible is recurring, and everything recurring is current. Cells unresolved at the relevant threshold are reported through identification bounds rather than counted as failures. No state numbers are averaged or converted into a composite score.
The counts are not published here and will not be until the dataset is frozen. Publishing the definitions first is the point: it prevents the thresholds from being chosen after the results are known.
The cards are generated last, from the frozen dataset. No provisional count is published at any earlier step.
Every frozen release carries a file manifest and SHA-256 checksums. Released files are never silently replaced: a corrected release receives a new version and an explicit change record.
2026 closure release v1.1, frozen 11 September 2026. Controlling methodology Revision 2.7. The v1.0 artifacts are superseded and retained only as provenance.
The files are not yet hosted here. The hashes identify them and can be checked against any copy supplied on request.
Source of truth. Public cell state for all 306 cells is generated from one status object. The explanatory prose attached to a cell may come from the research record, but it never decides public status. Where two accounts disagree, that is a defect to be fixed rather than a choice to be made.
Coffee Monitor preserves first-party evidence objects and their metadata for auditability. Third-party source files are redistributed only where rights permit.
Where redistribution is not appropriate, the public release provides the institution, the original address, the document date, the capture date, the artifact form and the cryptographic hash needed to identify the object.
Corrections and challenges
A new source or challenge triggers re-adjudication under the controlling rule book. Public state changes are logged with the old state, the new state, the effective date, the rule version and the decisive evidence. See Corrections.